Key takeaways

  • The current annual inflation rate is 2.8%, still stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target.
  • Consumers pay more close attention to cumulative inflation, and prices are 23.3% more expensive today than they were before the coronavirus pandemic recession began in February 2020.
  • The Federal Reserve cut interest rates a full percentage point across three consecutive meetings in 2024, but officials look to take a more cautious approach in 2025 as price pressures stay sticky and President Donald Trump’s tariff policies cause uncertainty.

Inflation is nowhere near as hot as it was when the U.S. economy first emerged from the coronavirus pandemic, but price pressures remain sticky.

Over the past year, inflation has risen 2.8 percent alone, a massive slowdown from the 9.1 percent pace seen in the summer of 2022 but still above the Fed’s 2 percent goal, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)’ monthly consumer price index (CPI) report for February. Excluding food and energy, a measure of “core” or “underlying” inflation rose 3.1 percent, the slowest pace in almost four years, the BLS found.

Cooling inflation, however, does not mean prices are getting cheaper, only that they aren’t rising as quickly as they once were. Consumer prices are 23.3 percent more expensive than they were in February 2020, a Bankrate analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows. That price burst means Americans would need about $1,233 to buy the same goods and services that cost $1,000 when the coronavirus-induced recession occurred. The threat of higher prices or a weaker economy from tariffs, federal layoffs and elevated interest rates could put even more strain on households’ budgets.

The February Consumer Price Index was better than expected, but how long will this last? The widespread imposition of tariffs represents upside risks to inflation in the months ahead.

— Greg McBride, CFA, Bankrate chief financial analyst

A little bit of inflation is good for consumers. The economy keeps growing and businesses continue expanding, hiring workers and bumping up their pay along the way. Too much inflation, however, feels akin to taking a pay cut. High inflation has consequences beyond just affordability, complicating saving for emergencies or investing for retirement.

Looking for the latest information on consumer prices? Here’s a round-up of where inflation is improving — and where it’s still remaining stubborn.

Highlights of the latest statistics on inflation

What is the current inflation rate?

Over the past 12 months, the overall annual inflation rate in February hit 2.8 percent, down from 3 percent in January, the BLS’ CPI report showed. Excluding food and energy, core” prices rose 3.1 percent, the coolest rate since May 2021.

Inflation is well below where it peaked in the summer of 2022. Yet, the figures reflect bumpier progress on inflation’s path back to the Fed’s 2 percent target. This month’s figures show the first slowdown in inflation in four months.

Prices that are rising the most

Of the nearly 400 items that BLS tracks, almost 7 in 10 items (or 69 percent) increased in price between February 2024 and February 2025. About 2 in 5 (or 43 percent) were cheaper in February than they were a year ago.

According to BLS, these are the prices that increased most over the past year:

Item February 2024-February 2025 increase
Eggs 58.8%
Video discs and other media* 20.8%
Admission to sporting events 12%
Motor vehicle insurance 11.1%
College textbooks* 10.8%
Uncooked, veal and other beef* 9.5%
Uncooked beef roasts 9.5%
Other condiments 9.5%
Purchase, subscription and rental of video* 9.3%
Instant coffee* 8.6%
*Denotes an item that isn’t seasonally adjusted

Month-over-month price changes, however, can give consumers a more real-time look at the prices that have recently been popping — or slowing. Lower prices in the same year-ago period, for example, can cause an item to look like it’s gaining speed, when it’s slowing in reality.

Case in point: Back in May, energy prices rose 3.5 percent over the 12-month period, appearing to be gaining speed from April’s 2.5 percent annual increase despite dipping 2 percent over the month. The reason for the discrepancy? May 2023 was a cheaper month for energy costs.

Consumers, however, should take seasonal variations into account. For instance, the holiday travel season likely contributed to last month’s jump in airfare prices. BLS doesn’t seasonally adjust all of its items, and year-over-year inflation rates can better smooth out those variations.

According to BLS, these are the prices that increased most over the past month:

Item January 2025-February 2025 increase
Eggs 10.4%
Admission to sporting events 7.2%
Olives, pickles and relishes* 6.3%
Men’s suits, sport coats and outerwear 5.5%
Girls’ apparel 3.6%
Tax return preparation and other accounting fees 3.3%
Laundry equipment 3.3%
Computer software and accessories* 3.3%
Jewelry 3.3%
Uncooked, veal and other beef* 3.1%

Why is inflation still hot right now?

Consumers might look at the massive increase in egg prices and wonder why the overall inflation rate is just 2.8 percent. To put it simply, the Bureau of Labor Statistics assigns weights to each individual good or service it tracks, based on how prevalent it’s considered to be in a consumer’s monthly budget.

Currently, the main contributors to inflation are shelter, insurance and services more broadly.

Over the past year:

  • Shelter has accounted for more than half (55 percent) of the increase in inflation;
  • Food has accounted for 13 percent of inflation;
  • Car insurance has accounted for 11 percent of inflation; and
  • Services has driven 93 percent of inflation.

Excluding food, energy and shelter, prices would’ve increased about 1.8 percent from a year ago, below the Fed’s preferred 2 percent goalpost.

The drivers of inflation have changed dramatically since the initial post-pandemic price burst. When price pressures peaked in June 2022, shelter was driving just 20 percent of the annual increase in prices. But as consumers emerged from lockdowns with massive pent-up demand at the same time as global supply shortages, energy was driving about a third (32 percent) of inflation, while food prices were driving 15 percent of inflation. Goods, meanwhile, were driving the majority of price pressures, with commodities accounting for more than half (58 percent) of inflation between June 2021 and 2022.

Supply chains have untangled since the pandemic, helping take the pressure off of goods inflation. However, services such as rent, insurance and even the price of dining out can take months, if not years, to fluctuate — depending on what’s happening with labor costs and consumer spending.

To combat inflation, officials on the Federal Reserve lifted borrowing costs from a rock-bottom level of near-zero percent to a 23-year high of 5.25-5.5 percent. Now, borrowing costs are in a target range of 4.25-4.5 percent.

Post-pandemic inflation: What’s risen the most and what’s gotten cheaper

Of the nearly 400 items BLS tracks, just 24 (or roughly 6 percent) are cheaper today than they were pre-pandemic.

To be sure, prices are expected to rise in the healthiest of economies — though only gradually, at a goalpost of around 2 percent a year.

According to BLS, these are the top 10 items that have jumped the most in price since the pandemic:

Item February 2020-February 2025 increase
Eggs 132.9%
Frozen noncarbonated juices and drinks* 61.3%
Margarine 55.9%
Motor vehicle insurance 55.5%
Motor vehicle repair 52.4%
Uncooked beef roasts 51%
Utility (piped) gas service 45.3%
Repair of household items* 45.2%
Other fats and oils, including peanut butter 44.9%
Uncooked, veal and other beef* 44.5%
*Denotes an item that isn’t seasonally adjusted

Meanwhile, the items that have dropped in price the most since the pandemic are primarily goods and electronics — largely thanks to improving supply chains.

Item February 2020-February 2025 decrease
Smartphones* -58.7%
Telephone hardware, calculators, and other consumer information items -49.2%
Televisions -27.9%
Information technology commodities -27.1%
Education and communication commodities -23.2%
Health insurance* -16.4%
Computer software and accessories* -14.8%
Video and audio products -14.5%
Other video equipment -14.1%
Computers, peripherals and smart home assistants -9.9%

Inflation breakdown by product category

Looking for an easy analysis of how inflation is impacting the key items in your budget? Here’s what Bankrate found.

  • Gasoline prices aren’t rising as rapidly as they once were. Technically, prices are 3.1 percent cheaper than they were a year ago — after soaring as high as 59.8 percent in June 2022. Even so, prices at the pump cost 28 percent more than before the pandemic.

    Energy prices, however, tend to be volatile. Between March and April of 2024, for example, prices at the pump increased across all 50 states between March and April, AAA data showed. Then, the following one-month period, they dipped in every state except Colorado.

     

  • Grocery prices (formally known as food at home) rose 1.8 percent from a year ago and are about 27.4 percent more expensive than they were before the pandemic, BLS data indicates. At their peak, grocery prices soared 13.6 percent in August 2022 from a year ago.

    Of the major shopping categories:

    • Meats: up 3.9 percent over the past year and 30.9 percent since February 2020
    • Fish and seafood: up 1.8 percent from a year ago and 18 percent since the start of the pandemic-induced recession
    • Dairy: up 0.8 percent over the past year and 20 percent more expensive since the pandemic
    • Fruits and vegetables: down -0.3 percent over the past year and 17.8 percent more expensive than before the pandemic
    • Sugar and sweets: up 2.9 percent from a year ago and 32.7 percent since the pandemic

    Meanwhile, the price of dining out at a restaurant (formally known as full service meals and snacks) increased 3.7 percent from a year ago, capping off a 28.5 percent increase since the pandemic.

  • Rent has become a key corner of inflation — and one of the costliest categories of a consumer’s budge. Prices, however, may finally be slowing, at least gradually.

    Rent of primary residence rose 0.3 percent between January 2025 and February 2025, a clear cooldown from the post-pandemic peak of 0.8 percent. Over the past year, rents have risen 4.1 percent, the slowest annual rate since December 2021.

    Even so, Americans who’ve had to sign new leases since the outbreak are feeling the pinch: Rent is up 27.1 percent since the pandemic.

    Real-time measures have showed that rents aren’t rising as quickly as they were at the height of post-pandemic lockdowns, though the sharper slowdown that most economists and Fed officials have been waiting for has taken longer to come to fruition. One reason could be because of lags, even longer than usual for shelter prices as leases and housing agreements take longer to roll over from the previous year. Another could simply be because homes and mortgage rates have stayed pricey, keeping more renters on the sidelines than usual.

  • Inflation hasn’t just made the prices of key household essentials more expensive — but the costs of vacations and travel, too. Airline ticket prices, for example, once soared as much as 43 percent from a year ago in September 2022.

    Those prices are back to following the ebbs and flow of travel season, though consumers might still be experiencing some sticker shock:

    • Airfares: down 0.7 percent from a year ago, the largest drop since June 2024, and now 1.3 percent cheaper than in February 2020
    • Car and truck rental: down 7.1 percent from a year ago but up 15.6 percent since the pandemic
    • Hotels and motels (lodging away from home): up 1.7 percent from last year and 15.8 percent more expensive than before the pandemic

     

  • Owning a car has been especially pricey since the pandemic, from the cost of the car itself and the interest rates that finance it to the repair and insurance costs required for upkeep. Making car inflation hard to escape, the majority of households (roughly 92 percent) owned at least one car in 2022, according to the Census Bureau.

    • Motor vehicle insurance: up 11.1 percent from a year ago and 55.5 percent since the start of the pandemic in 2020
    • Vehicle repair: up 7.9 percent from a year ago and 52.4 percent since February 2020
    • New vehicles: down 0.3 percent from a year ago but still 20.5 percent more expensive since February 2020
    • Used vehicles: down 0.8 percent since February 2024 and 33 percent more expensive.
    • Leased vehicles: up 1.4 percent in September from a year ago (the latest data available) but 38.5 percent more expensive since the start of the pandemic

     

The different methods of measuring inflation: PCE versus CPI

Fed policymakers look at the full picture of economic data when setting interest rates. But officially, they prefer a different measure to see whether they’re succeeding at controlling inflation: the Department of Commerce’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index.

But that preference has been keeping Fed watchers on their toes. Lately, the PCE index has been indicating slower inflation, with overall prices now half a percentage point above the Fed’s target (2.5 percent as of January 2025, versus 3 percent in the same month for CPI). Excluding food and energy, “core” prices in January are up 2.6 percent from a year ago versus 3.3 percent in BLS’ gauge that month.

Those variations have always been afoot. Mainly, they’re because of methodology differences. For starters, PCE takes consumers’ substitutions into account (for example, one family’s decision to buy fish over meat for one month because it’s cheaper).

But another key difference is to blame lately. Both agencies estimate an item’s relative importance differently, with BLS’ gauge giving the most weight to the category of inflation that’s coincidentally been the hottest: shelter.

For Fed officials, the story remains largely the same: Inflation has majorly improved since peaking at a 40-year high back in 2022 but is still stubborn.

Takeaways for consumers

Slowing inflation in 2024 gave the Fed room to cut interest rates and consumers a chance to recover some of the purchasing power that they lost. Even so, prices are still higher today than they would’ve been had the pandemic not occurred, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell says tariffs are already pushing prices even higher.

  • So long as inflation stays high, so will the borrowing costs you pay: The U.S. central bank’s key benchmark interest rate is still higher than at any point since the Great Recession — keeping borrowing costs elevated on the products consumers pay, from credit cards and auto loans to home equity lines of credit (HELOCs).
  • Comparison shop as much as you can: Consumers know to compare offers from multiple lenders before locking in a loan. Why not the same for the items you buy on a regular basis? Compare prices at multiple retailers, see if any stores offer price match and craft a budget. If a product or ingredient pushes your spending goal over the edge, consider swapping it out for something else.
  • Use the personal finance tools at your disposal: Finding the right credit card that helps you earn rewards on the purchases you were already going to make can be another way to pad up your wallet. Just be sure you’re not carrying a balance. A 20 percent interest rate will never outweigh the cash back.
  • Save for emergencies and find the right account: Historically, investing in the stock market has been the best way to beat inflation over time, but higher rates mean savers can find a market-like return without any of the risk. Deposit rates have already fallen after the Fed’s rate cuts, but returns on high-yielding accounts are still beating inflation. Stash your cash in a high-yield account or add a certificate of deposit (CD) to your portfolio, so you can lock in these elevated yields for the long haul.

See how all items BLS regularly tracks have changed over time

  • Bankrate analyzed 407 items from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index (CPI) to determine how much specific items have increased in price on both a month-over-month basis, year-over-year basis and then on a pre-pandemic basis (defined as February 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic-induced recession was officially determined to have begun). Bankrate then ranked each item from slowest to fastest appreciation, focusing on the top and bottom 10 in each category, in addition to key aspects of Americans’ budgets. When given the choice, Bankrate chose an item’s seasonally adjusted index.

     

Read the full article here

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